A lot has changed since the Washington Wizards lost to the Atlanta Hawks in six games in Round 2 of the 2015 NBA playoffs. For one, the Hawks most regular starting lineup is Dennis Schroder, Tim Hardaway Jr., Kent Bazemore, Paul Millsap, and Dwight Howard, which is significantly different from the Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver, DeMarre Carroll, Paul Millsap, and Al Horford squad that beat the Wizards two years ago. Due to a number of roster moves during the season, this unit has only played together in 36 games this year at an average of 6.7 minutes per game. This unit has an offensive rating of 104.1 and defensive rating of 102.2 for an overall 1.9 net rating to go along with a 54.8% true shooting percentage. Now let’s take a look at the individual matchups we will see between four and seven games of.
John Wall vs. Dennis Schroder
These two guys do not like each other. Schroder was on the 2015 Atlanta team and taunted Wall after he returned from multiple displaced fractions in his left wrist. It is rumored that Schroder antagonistically threatened to purposely foul Wall on his injured wrist in an attempt to hurt the Washington point guard and gain a competitive advantage. Schroder is certainly an accomplished player, averaging 17.9 points and 6.3 assists per game in this, his first season as a NBA starter. That said, Wall is arguably the best point guard in the Eastern Conference and will be playing with a chip on his shoulder. He doesn't forget being wronged in the past and that is a good thing for Washington.
Advantage: Washington.
Bradley Beal vs. Tim Hardaway Jr.
Despite already being on his second team in four years, Hardaway has seemed to have Washington’s number this season. Unlike his former college teammate, Trey Burke, Hardaway has turned into a consistent and legitimate wing threat in the NBA and will be playing not only for the chance at a championship, but a new fat contract as well. In the four games he played against the Wizards this season, Hardaway averaged 18 points and shot 40 percent from beyond the arc in just 27.5 minutes per game.
Bradley Beal continues to ascend the NBA shooting ladder and already has a track record of playing at a high level in the postseason, averaging 21.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 4.6 assists in 21 playoff games. When Wall got hurt two years ago, it was Beal that carried Washington on both ends of the court. Beal was successful in neutralizing DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Korver on the perimeter and both are greater talents than Hardaway.
Advantage: Washington.
Otto Porter vs. Kent Bazemore
Similar to Hardaway, Bazemore bounced around the NBA before finding a home in Atlanta, who rewarded him with a whopping 4-year, $70 million contract (Porter should beat that this summer. Bazemore is a better defender compared to Schroder and Hardaway, but is a worse offensive option. The local Old Dominion product has been dealing with a knee injury for nearly a month, which has kept him out of the lineup at times, which could give Porter an advantage when he makes his frequent cuts to the rim.
Unfortunately for Washington, Porter has fallen back to Earth from his 46.6 percent three-point shooting pre-All-Star Break, posting a pedestrian 34.4 percent in the two months since. There may be cross-matching with Bazemore on Beal and Hardaway on Porter, but for the small forward battle solely, there is no clear-cut advantage.
Advantage: Push.
Markieff Morris vs. Paul Millsap
As high as I am on Morris being a modern NBA stretch-four that provides a sense of edge to the team defensively, Millsap is easily the best big man in this series. The 31-year-old might not have the same ups as he did in his Utah days, so Morris may be able to take advantage in that regard. Despite that, Millsap did make his fourth All-Star game this season behind 18.1 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game. If there is a player that is going to take over the series on behalf of Atlanta, my money is on Millsap. The level at which Millsap is better than Morris is actually not that much anymore. Two years ago, Millsap did not perform efficiently, but he caused a matchup problem for the Wizards as Nene was stretched out to the three-point line, but Paul Pierce was also not the greatest post defender.
Morris is a bit of a hybrid of both and although the sample size is small, in four games against the Hawks this season, he averaged 17 points and 7. 3 rebounds to go along with 41.7 percent shooting from beyond the arc.
Advantage: Atlanta.
Marcin Gortat vs. Dwight Howard
Many visiting NBA coaches make it a point to discuss how Gortat is an underrated center in today’s game, which is true, but he will have a tough time against his former teammate in Orlando. Howard’s scoring numbers have not returned to those he put up with the Magic, but his efficiency is at a career-high with a 13-year best 63.3 percent field goal rate. Besides his 13.5 points and 12.7 rebounds per game, Howard is his hometown team’s best defender as he continues to be a fine rim protector.
Washington should look to combat that by using Gortat’s strength in pick and roll to draw Howard out of the paint. Gortat is by no means a stretch-five, but he can live on the perimeter racking up screen assists and indirect assists by removing a shot altering big out of the play. Similar to the Millsap matchup, there are ways for Washington to minimize the matchup differentials not in their favor.
Advantage: Atlanta.
The Benches
Although I would say Washington’s starting unit is stronger, and, in my opinion, can compete with anyone outside of Golden State and Cleveland, the second unit of both teams will play a role in this series. Their role should not be overstated because you can expect starters like John Wall and Bradley Beal to play around 40 minutes per game, but they can easily affect the outcome of two games.
With Ian Mahinmi sidelined at least the first two games (I fear it may be longer) the Wizards bench lineup will be Brandon Jennings, Bojan Bogdanovic, Kelly Oubre, and Jason Smith. Smith’s minutes would have been quite limited if Mahinmi was healthy because, despite his fan favorite status, there is not enough minute for everyone in the postseason, which he fully understands as the ultimate professional. Without the Oubre-Mahinmi tandem, Washington’s second unit may not be a lockdown unit as it was at times recently. The key for the Wizards will Bogdanovic getting back to being a lethal three-point shooter and Jennings finally finding his stroke to shoot at least a decent clip.
For Atlanta, they are also a deep team with the likes of Jose Calderon, Malcolm Delaney, Mike Dunleavy, Thabo Sefolosha, Taurean Prince, Ersan Ilyasova, and Mike Muscala all as viable options. The notable theme with these players is that - unlike Howard - the Hawks’ backup bigs live on the three-point line, where ironically, they cannot defend for the most part. I would predict that Delaney’s minutes are cut with Dunleavy next in line; Ilyasova and Muscala could also be platooned with the former, potentially winning out if Morris is played at the five.
Advantage: Push.
Prediction
I have seen the Wizards ceiling and it is ridiculously high, but it has been a long time since we have seen that level of play consistently. The 4-seed has the stronger backcourt, but the 5-seed has the stronger frontcourt and are out of their recent slump. For that reason, I think this will not be a quick first round series like Chicago (5 games) or Toronto (4 game) in 2014 and 2015. I do think Washington will pull it out and in a reverse deja-vu situation by beating Atlanta on their home court in Game 6, similarly to what the Hawks did to the Wizards two years ago when Paul Pierce’s potential overtime-forcing shot was waived off to the disbelief of an entire city.