The Washington Wizards and the Boston Celtics will meet in an Eastern Conference Semifinals after splitting the regular season contest two apiece. Each team won both of their home games and lost both of their road games.
There is a lot of bad blood between these two sides. In the first meeting, Washington picked up their second win of the season after John Wall was ejected for laying out Marcus Smart. The next game the Wizards got pummeled at TD Garden but the fireworks came after when Jae Crowder stuck his finger in John Wall’s face, a poke that resulted in a slap across the face. The penultimate matchup was “The Funeral Game” where Washington backed up their big talk. The finale was another impressive win for the Celtics as the Wizards were going through the motions post All-Star Break.
In the first round of the playoffs, the starting lineup for the final four games of Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, Gerald Green, Jae Crowder, and Al Horford had a whopping 27.5 net rating, 125.6 offensive and 98.1 defensive, to go along with 64.6 true shooting percentage in 57 minutes played. In comparison, Washington's starting unit had a 15.2 net rating, 108.8 offensive and 93.6 defensive, and 54.5 true shooting percentage in 106 minutes. Now let’s take a look at the individual matchups we will see between four and seven games of.
John Wall vs. Isaiah Thomas
In Wall’s eyes, he and Thomas are a part of the second-tier of MVP candidates with Kawhi Leonard and LeBron James behind Russell Westbrook and James Harden. In the country’s eyes, Thomas and his 28.9 points per game are significantly greater than Wall’s 23.1 points per game, even though the latter averaged 4.8 more assists per game.
Thomas is hands down the better shooter as he manages to shoot 38 percent from beyond the arc, but he is also an inferior defender. At just 5-foot-9, it is difficult for Thomas to defend anybody as opponents can easily shoot cleanly over the top of him, which correlates to his miserable 112 defensive rating during the regular season. It is possible Boston, at times, uses Thomas against Otto Porter and have Bradley or Green defend Wall. Either way, both Wall and Thomas will be the best players on the court and I expect them to more or less balance out each other’s production.
Advantage: Push.
Bradley Beal vs. Avery Bradley
Avery Bradley Beal should be the answer to a 'Before And After' Wheel of Fortunate question and many are likely to be confused by who is being referred to when the name Bradley is used during the series. But back to basketball. Boston’s Bradley, unlike Thomas, is a strong defender. Not as much of a scorer, but he still dropped over 16 points per game during the regular season and is an impressive 39 percent shooter from beyond the arc.
Beal will have to continue his “I hate when they touch the ball” and “I don't even want you to know what the ball feels like,” defensive mentality because Washington cannot afford for Avery to be a big contributor. Beal is certainly up to the task as he hopes to prove Scott Brook’s proclamation of being one of the best two-way players in the NBA correct to the national audience. Beal held his man, mainly Tim Hardaway Jr., to a mere 29 of 86 shooting, 33.7 percent, which was the best defensive efficiency among players who defended 50 or more shots in Round 1.
Advantage: Washington.
Otto Porter vs. Gerald Green
After a DNP-CD in a Game 2 loss to Chicago, Green was surprisingly inserted into the starting lineup by Brad Stevens in hopes of adding another shooter that can open up the floor. It worked. Despite averaging a mere 5.6 points in the regular season, Green averaged 11 points and shot 41 percent from deep as a starter in 20 minutes a game.
Before the final two games of the Washington-Atlanta series, Porter was getting worked by rookie Taurean Prince, which the Wizards can ill afford in this series. Being in a contract year with any hope of receiving a max contract laying in the balance should be motivation enough for Porter to become the consistent third scorer the Wizards need this series. Unfortunately, I do not think Porter will return to pre All-Star Break shooting form, but will provide enough hustle plays to provide a modicum contribution.
Advantage: Push.
Markieff Morris vs. Jae Crowder
Unlike Paul Millsap, Crowder is more of Morris’ style; a rugged enforcer that speaks his mind. Crowder averaged 14 points per game to go along with 39.8 percent shooting from beyond the arc as the Celtics small forward during the regular season, but was a cold 27.3 percent from the bonus sphere against Chicago in Round 1. If Crowder continues to play power forward instead of Amir Johnson (or maybe Al Horford would be cross matched onto Morris to allow Gortat and Johnson to bang), then Morris needs to put his underrated post game to work in order to take advantage of Crowder's 6-foot-6 height.
Morris will have an easier time handling Crowder from a defensive perspective relative to four time All Star Millsap, so last season’s trade acquisition certainly could be Washington’s X-Factor in Round 2.
Advantage: Washington.
Marcin Gortat vs. Al Horford
As much as I believe that Gortat is under-appreciated for his play that does not show up in the final box score - like screen assists in which the Polish Machine led the NBA with 9.5 per game during Round 1 - Horford is a different animal. Horford is the definition of a stretch-five, which will force Gortat to play away from the basket, contest shots at the three-point line, and move his feet constantly as Horford can also drive with a decent proficiency. Horford lit it up against Chicago averaging 15.3 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game to go along with a team-high 53.8 percent shooting from beyond the arc. Thankfully for Washington, he only took 2.2 shots from deep per game after averaging nearly 4 during the regular season.
The one area where Gortat can take advantage of Horford is by being physical in the paint. Dwight Howard was fairly limited during Round 1 thanks to Gortat and if he brings the same intensity in Round 2, the Wizards can take advantage of the Celtics rebounding deficiencies.
Advantage: Boston.
The Benches
For Boston, you can expect Marcus Smart, Kelly Olynyk, and Terry Rozier to see heavy minutes with a little bit of Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko, and Jaylen Brown sprinkled in.
Johnson was a DNP-Coaches decision in the last three games once getting pulled from the starting lineup and Brown seemingly only saw garbage time even though the rookie showed flashes of excellence during the regular season as a defender.
Smart and Rozier will be matched up with Brandon Jennings back and forth during the season, which should make Wizards fans cringe as the latter has shown a lack of a defensive presence against Atlanta as 35-year old Jose Calderon was able to blow by the midseason signing.
One alternative would be to utilize Kelly Oubre Jr. in this situation where he has curiously thrived when matched up against opposing point guards at times this season.
Olynyk is another stretch-five type and is essentially a better version of Jason Smith who he could be in for several matchups against depending on Ian Mahinmi’s (left calf contusion/strain) time table.
Jerebko, if used, would likely see time against Bojan Bogdanovic in a European matchup. Although it is much improved from the beginning of the season, Washington’s bench is still its weakest link.
Advantage: Boston.
Prediction
Similar to my correct prediction that Washington would beat Atlanta in six games, I’ll again be an optimist and take the DC team in six games. Should it go seven, the Wizards will be in trouble on the road. I cannot imagine what Isaiah Thomas will be feeling after attending the funeral of his little sister on Saturday, the day before a foolish 1 p.m. Game 1 tipoff, and it is no fun to take advantage in another’s down period, but I could see Washington stealing a game on the road in the opener if Boston’s best player is not emotionally available as seemed to be the case early in the Celtics series with Chicago.